One of the things I want to start doing is tracking my NFL bets for everyone to see. I had a really good 2013, 2014, and 2015 (all above 60%), so hopefully that will continue in 2016. So far, I’m only 1-0 on the season (took Arizona to beat the spread in Week 2). I’ll be posting the bets in units so in case you piggyback along, you can size your bets however you like (full disclaimer – if you follow along and I have a terrible week or season, that’s on you. Do your own homework too.) This week though, there are several games that intrigue me:
COLTS -2.5 @ Jaguars (1 unit) – Fairly simple logic – the Jags have been pretty bad this year, and close-ish games have been because of garbage time. This also isn’t a true home game for them since it’s in London, and the loss of JJ Watt for the Texans may fuel Indy to start playing like a playoff team again. The line opened at Colts -1.5, so there’s been plenty of betting on the Colts. I’m still fine with the -2.5.
LIONS -3 @ Bears (1.25 units) – Again, another one where the line opened well (at -1), but I’m still fine with -3, though there’s obviously a shot it splits now. Matt Stafford lit up the Bears last year, and they look even worse now with Brian Hoyer at QB and several key injuries. I actually think Jordan Howard is better than Jeremy Langford, but that doesn’t dissuade me.
BRONCOS -3 @ Bucs (1.25 units) – The talk of Denver going from Super Bowl team to an 8-8 team never made sense to me. Peyton Manning was beyond awful last year, yet the Broncos won on the backs of their D. Nothing has changed in that regard besides Trevor Siemian being an unknown coming into the season. He’s been good this year, and the D is still elite. There’s also no run game for the Bucs with Doug Martin shelved, so the Broncos can sell out on getting after Jameis Winston.
COWBOYS -2.5 @ 49ers (1.25 units) – Dak Prescott is fine, Zeke Elliott is fine, the o-line is still great. The Niners are simply a bad team, and Blaine Gabbert will never be good.
VIKINGS -4.5 vs. Giants (0.75 units) – This is the toughest one this week, and one I’m least confident about. The Vikings D is something else though, and if Bradford doesn’t turn into Badford, the Vikes will win. Also, the past is the past, but Eli Manning has been atrocious against Minnesota.
Season: 1-0
Week 3: 0-0
Good luck this week!
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